Miao Wei: The automotive operating system is more urgent and deadly than the chip

With the theme of "reshaping the new pattern of the core supply chain of automobiles", the "2022 Global New Energy and New Energy and Electric Vehicles" jointly sponsored by the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and the People's Government of Jiangning District, Nanjing City The "Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference" opened in Nanjing. Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, delivered a speech on the theme of "Thinking about the Key Issues Facing the Current Automotive Supply Chain" at the conference.

When talking about the key issues facing the current automotive supply chain, Miao Wei said that the "electrification" of cars is a major trend. my country's new energy vehicles are expected to complete the production and sales of 5.5 million units throughout the year, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. The target of 20% penetration of new energy vehicles in 2025 is likely to be achieved this year three years ahead of schedule.

In terms of the development trend of automotive operating systems, Miao Wei said that the "lack of cores" has been taken seriously, but "fewer souls" are easily overlooked. Many car companies realize the importance of chips for the autonomous and controllable automotive supply chain, but the operating system is a more urgent and fatal issue than chips, and it is the key to determining the outcome of intelligent and connected cars. Miao Wei believes that solving the problem of the operating system can also solve the problem of blocking the development of advanced chip processes to a certain extent, "Fortunately, the development pattern of global smart cars has not been determined, and the time window left for us is about three years, at most five years".

Miao Wei said that to plan ahead, we must establish an autonomous and controllable operating system, and we must establish a development model that combines software and hardware, and car companies must play a leading role in this.

The full text of Miao Wei's speech shorthand is attached below:

The title of my talk today is "Thinking of the Key Issues Facing the Current Automotive Supply Chain".

Bringing up the issue of the automotive supply chain, due to the impact of the global new crown epidemic and geopolitics, the supply chain of new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles has undergone great changes in recent years, and the global supply chain will be deployed in the future. Change, short-chain, regional chain multi-point supply will be the development trend of future supply chain, and supply chain is not simply an economic decision-making issue, and has been interfered by many political factors, but no matter how it changes, I personally think that As a supply chain, layout close to the market and layout close to the factory will still not change.

China is the largest market for automobiles. Our annual production and sales of automobiles account for about 1/3 of the global annual production and sales of automobiles. We are still full of confidence in the deployment of the supply chain of new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles in China. This layout will not be shifted by the will of some politicians. After all, economic laws still play a decisive role in the development of new energy vehicles. In the first half of this year, our production and sales exceeded 3.5 million units, an increase of about 1.6 times over the same period last year. We predict that the production and sales of new energy vehicles for the whole year of this year may reach 5.5 million units, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles by 2025 determined by our latest round of medium and long-term development plans for new energy vehicles20 It seems that the goal of % will be achieved three years ahead of schedule this year. This involves the biggest change in the global auto industry in a century. In fact, it has been more than 100 years since the invention of the car, and it is close to 140 years of history.

How did this change happen?

As far as automotive products are concerned, I personally believe that electrification and intelligence will be the main direction of change. Why didn't I talk about networking? Because whether it is from new energy vehicles or smart cars, networking is a means of enabling the promotion of electrification and intelligent promotion of automotive products. In this regard, China can make up for the gap with the level of western developed countries through unified understanding and unified action. For example, in the development of intelligent networked vehicles, we have a good 5G network. The biggest application scenario of 5G is 2B, not 2C. , the biggest market that can be seen in 2B is the Internet of Vehicles, we can fully utilize the advantages in this regard.

When it comes to smart cars, because foreign countries do not have this condition, all problems must be carried by car companies on their own products. Do we need cameras for every car, and every car needs to perceive the surrounding environment at every intersection? I don’t think this is an economical or the most effective way. We can build roadside units to give All the cars passing through this intersection provide this realistic scene, which can be more effective and can reduce the application cost from the whole society. Of course, the early investment is another thing to consider, so the network connection is our advantage, we It can be changed in Western countries to hand over all problems to car companies. We solve some problems in the process of intelligent vehicle promotion through vehicle-road coordination, local governments at all levels and cross-industry cooperation.

In the promotion of new energy vehicles, the construction of social public charging piles has greatly facilitated everyone to solve the problem of charging difficulties. In this regard, local governments at all levels have played a crucial role. Without their efforts , we now have more than 2.6 million charging piles, especially more than 1 million public charging piles, it is impossible to establish such a short period of time. Of course, this is not enough. We have to continue to explore the route, but this route has been proved by the past practice. This is our institutional advantage, so we must inherit it in the future development.

Now when it comes to the supply chain of new energy vehicles, let’s first talk about the issue of chips.

As for the development of chips, in the past few years, the most advanced process technology requirements and the largest demand are consumer chips. In the development of consumer chips represented by smartphones, automotive-grade chips are second only to military-grade chips. The chip working conditions of consumer-grade and industrial-grade applications are more severe, especially with higher requirements on life. In addition, in addition to general standards, automotive-grade chips must also adapt to a series of standards used in automobiles. For example, to prove the reliability of chips, we usually use the AEC-Q100 standard system implemented in North America as our reliability. A standard for verification, for example, if we want to control the failure rate, we must establish a quality control system for chip companies. When it comes to the quality control system IATF-16949, we have converted it into a national standard, which is an unavoidable standard certification. When it comes to functional safety, ISO 26262 is another certification that must be passed, so automotive-grade chips are more demanding than consumer-grade and industrial-grade chips, require longer certification time, and have a higher threshold for getting into the car than consumer-grade chips. high.

In addition to the chip, I also want to talk about the software issue here. In the computer age, we created the "Wintel Alliance". PCs all over the world probably use the Windows operating system. In the process of converting feature phones to smart phones, companies represented by Apple have created a non-open source system. The closed, closed operating system iOS. Google saw this opportunity and launched an Android operating system, open source, open, and free for everyone to use. Therefore, in the era of smartphones, basically, except for Apple, which occupies 10%-20% of the market share, all mobile phone companies in the world without exception have chosen Android as the operating system.

In the past, I also thought that there was no problem with open source and open operating systems, but two years ago the United States suppressed Huawei. In addition to the discontinuation of the supply of chips, the use of Android operating systems was also restricted. It is not to restrict Huawei from using the Android operating system, but to restrict Huawei from using the Android operating system. The App application software on Android has temporarily turned the operating system used by Hongmeng 's previous industrial use into a positive one, and Hongmeng has survived the continuous upgrade of Huawei's old customers. Otherwise, even some Huawei customers in China will be difficult to maintain. Losing it is very impressive.

Therefore, through the lack of the operating system of mobile phones, we deeply realize that in the process of converting functional products to smart products, if there is no operating system, no matter how strong the chip is, no matter how good the car is, it will be a tall building on the beach. , If the problem of "lack of core and lack of soul" is not resolved, we will not be able to go fast nor far.

The second part I want to share with you is the development trend and thinking of the automotive chip supply chain.

Here is a brief introduction to our domestic chip development in recent years. From the aspects of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, with the development of our smartphones in recent years, chip design companies have made the fastest progress. It turns out that Huawei HiSilicon has entered the world's top ten integrated circuit design companies, with the highest When I remembered it was ranked fifth, Spreadtrum Reddick also entered the top ten in the world, but unfortunately after the US crackdown on Huawei, the current chip design company Huawei has been unable to rank, because although it can be designed, but No one tapes out or OEM for Huawei. But it is an indisputable fact that we are the fastest in terms of design capabilities.

Now in terms of country, the United States ranks first in the world in the field of global chip design, with a market share of 68%, which is the result of last year's statistics. The second and third places in the world are Taiwan, China, and mainland China, with a market share of 16% and 13%, respectively.

When it comes to packaging and testing, China has the strongest strength and the smallest gap with the world's leading level. Among the top ten packaging companies in the world, there are five in Taiwan, three in mainland China, and the three in mainland China are Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics. Dian and Huatian Technology, there is only one in the United States and one in Singapore, which are the top ten in the world.

We have encountered resistance in the chip tape-out of advanced manufacturing process. Another idea is to solve the problem by packaging different types of chips together to make up for our defects in advanced manufacturing process to a certain extent, and this is also the development direction of the international mainstream. .

The biggest gap between us now is the chip manufacturing process. Now the most advanced process can only reach 14 nanometers. Since the United States ordered the EUV lithography machine from the Netherlands not to export to China, we are upgrading to a more advanced process. hindered. However, in terms of global distribution, advanced manufacturing processes are good, but their current market share is still relatively small. We have been affected by the chip shortage in the past two years, mainly chips with mature processes of 28nm and above, especially in addition to digital Circuits, chips for analog circuits, power semiconductors, and sensor chips are all in tension. Therefore, in this regard, we must first consolidate our inherent advantages as much as possible, because in the case of the development of advanced processes being hindered, our lack of production capacity in 28 nanometers and above is also a contradiction for us, so now we are desperately trying. Invest in and expand our proven process capabilities at 28nm and beyond.

For automotive-grade chips, in addition to a small number of AI chips, including CPU, GPU, GPU use a little, CPU use a little, it is best to have an advanced process, we can also solve it in other ways without an advanced process, and in In total, the proportion of advanced process chips in automotive-grade chips is still relatively low, and it is still a structure dominated by mature process processes.

From the perspective of the whole vehicle, with the development of new energy vehicles, in the past, it was controlled from decentralized ECUs, and now the newly designed platform and newly developed platform have achieved the electronic and electrical architecture of a centralized domain controller. Looking forward to the future, based on the domain controller, it will be further concentrated on the central computing platform of the whole vehicle, and each concentration is conducive to giving full play to the efficiency of vehicle-grade chips in the vehicle. At present, many chips are distributed control, because the domain controller does not give full play to the performance of in-vehicle computing, so in the development direction of the whole vehicle, the development from the domain controller to the central computing architecture has been proposed a few years ago. The development trend is a slope graph.

Speaking of China, on this basis, combined with what I said earlier, we must plan the development of the cloud control platform in a forward-looking manner. At the end of the morning discussion, because many chip companies were present in the morning, I said that we are all paying attention to the automotive-grade chips used in the car. Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce restricted Nvidia’s export of GPU chips to China. I said, why did he not restrict Orin, but restrict GPU chips? Later, Kai Yu told me that Nvidia's GPU chips were crucial for training artificial intelligence systems, so he was stuck on key points. What I mean by this is that while all of us are paying attention to the AI ​​chips used in the car, we may seldom pay attention to the development of artificial intelligence system chips in the cloud. We need to make up for this shortcoming as soon as possible.

In the coordinated development direction of car companies and automotive chips, I personally think that car companies should take on the responsibility of "chain leader". A representative mentioned this issue when speaking this morning. In the past, car companies basically did not care about the issue of chips. The selection and matching of chips are basically completed at the first-tier suppliers and second-tier suppliers. The system-level chip matching of our power system is also provided by the world's famous parts suppliers according to the system, so the car companies basically The above is a user. Now car companies do not necessarily make chips, but car companies must understand chips. Car companies must establish a cross-industry alliance and cooperation on their own development and chip development. There must be an overall Considering that it is not allowed to let things go. This is related to the future development of car companies. This is a big problem, and only when this is established can a good industrial development ecology be formed.

This is some development trends and personal thoughts I shared with you about automotive chips.

The third part focuses on the development trend and thinking of the automotive operating system.

As mentioned above, the electronic and electrical architecture of the whole vehicle has developed from distributed to centralized, and the software of automobiles has also evolved from the development of embedded software in the past to the development of full-stack software. The operating system can play a linking role, and can be responsible for internal management and external interaction.

Now the development trend of full-stack operating systems is very obvious. Some car companies are interested in building full-stack operating systems by themselves. I think it is possible for capable car companies to build their own, but we have to talk about mobile phones. For example, Samsung also had a smartphone operating system at that time, and Nokia also had its own Symbian smartphone operating system, but under the trend of Android being open source, open, and free, almost all mobile phone manufacturers in the world, except Apple, followed Android. . Now Android has begun to enter car companies through the car-machine system in the development of smart cars, and it will further penetrate into the cockpit system and chassis system in the next step. I am worried that in three years or five years, we will form a situation of mobile phones. Smart cars all over the world have adopted an open source, open, and completely free operating system. Once this ecology is formed, it will be a jungle. The rule, the winner takes all, the mobile phone shows that there are only first and second, no third in the world. I guess this is the end of the global car in the future. Tesla has decided to get rid of AutoSar and write the code line by line. A closed-loop non-open operating system has been created, just like Apple in those days. In addition to Tesla, there are at most one or two companies. If there is no production and sales of millions of vehicles, whether it is the function software of automatic driving or the software used by users, it will not be a non-mainstream person like you. The operating system should be adapted first. People must find a large operating system, and the operating system with the largest number of users will be adapted first. This is the ecology of industrial development, and there is no way. Including Google is neither selfless nor gratuitous. Although there is no charge for direct customers, all apps installed on Android need to be certified on the Android platform, and Android also charges. This is Internet thinking. , "Wool grows on pigs", so the operating system is a more pressing supply chain problem than the chip.

Over the past few years, car companies have deeply realized the constraints of chip shortages on our development, but most companies have not realized that the lack of operating systems will be a fatal problem. In a positive sense, now we can also achieve decoupling of hardware and software through the creation of operating systems. One operating system can adapt to several heterogeneous chips, not to mention homogeneous chips, which can adapt to different types of the same type of chips. The chip of the manufacturer, this decoupling at the bottom of the operating system is no problem. Just like we said that the peripheral devices of the computer are plug-and-play, the future chips will also be plug-and-play, so solving the problem of the operating system is also To a certain extent, it can solve the problem of the development of our advanced chip manufacturing process being hindered. Fortunately, the development pattern of global smart cars has not yet been determined. The time window left for us is about three years, at most five years. If we want to increase the sense of urgency, I would rather spend three years, through three years of hard work, to build a self-controllable, open source, and preferably free operating system, and form an industrial development ecology in the Chinese market. Because China accounts for 1/3 of the world's production, if we talk about the development of smart cars and the development of new energy vehicles, we account for more than half of the world's After that, it once again achieved the leadership of the global automotive operating system.

In this regard, when it comes to operating systems and chips, there is another important issue. For a long time, we have not enough coordination between software and hardware in the development of electronic information, chips and software. Just engage in software, and in the end, when a problem occurs, hardware is said to be a software problem, and software is said to be a hardware problem. Let's take a look at the international development trend. In the computer age, there is the "Wintel Alliance", and in the mobile phone age, there are Android and ARM alliances. In the era of automobiles, problems that have been easily overlooked in the past must be solved for a long time. The software and hardware must be coordinated from the beginning, so as to complement each other's advantages and achieve win-win cooperation.

Finally, I want to say that, of course, under the premise of opening up, we should not seek 100% autonomy. This is unscientific, uneconomical, and impossible. We will further expand the opening to the outside world. We welcome foreign vehicle companies, foreign chip companies, and foreign software companies to invest in China. They must join hands with us to share the dividends of China's auto development. Of course, we must also change the past. After joining the WTO, we have actively integrated into the development pattern of global integration and actively participated in the division of labor in the international industrial chain. Because China has developed to this day, the US will not stop containing and suppressing China, so we must have a spare tire. Pursue 100% domestic production, but also prevent some countries from suppressing our fastest-growing industries and best-growing companies at critical times. Therefore, we must take precautions and establish an autonomous and controllable operating system. In the hard-integrated development model, car companies must play a leading role in this.

The above is the main content of my speech today. Thank you!

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