Yang Yiqiang, the first commander of the "Long March 11" rocket, said in an exclusive interview recently, "China's commercial aerospace has ushered in the best development opportunities, and has been made by basic manufacturing, product The 1.0 era of R&D has entered the 2.0 era of application traction and market leadership and will catch up with the development level of the United States within 10 years.”
Yang Yiqiang said that in the field of commercial aerospace, China and the United States have formed a certain market size. 2015 is the first year of China's aerospace commercialization. At present, China's commercial aerospace has entered the 2.0 era from the 1.0 era and is expected to enter the 3.0 era within 5 years. the constellation of satellites, enabling rocket recyclability and reducing costs. Another data shows that from 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China's commercial aerospace market scale reached 22.09%, which is related to China's complete independent intellectual property rights and talent hematopoietic mechanism, as well as state support. However, from the perspective of the economic scale and overall enterprise valuation of commercial aerospace, the volume is still relatively small, and there are few companies that really rely on rockets and satellites to make profits. At present, China's commercial aerospace companies as a whole are still in the "accumulation" stage.
Yang Yiqiang also said that the "spring" of China's commercial aerospace will come by 2027 at the latest. The "spring" of commercial aerospace can be judged based on the following signs: First, the satellite constellation has been established on a large scale, the launch vehicle has entered the stage of the high-density launch, and the recovery and reuse of low-cost large-scale liquid rockets can be realized; Modes, such as space tourism, can be realized; third, navigation and positioning, navigation enhancement, low-orbit Internet and high-time-resolution remote sensing constellations can provide services for the public and enterprises. Specific to space travel, there are currently three types.
The first is to enter the space station, which has strict requirements on the physical and psychological quality of tourists; the second is to take tourists into space through a twin-fuselage air carrier represented by the "White Knight" of Virgin Galactic. This mode is less comfortable and safe; the third is the suborbital travel with more mature technology, which is suitable for most people. With the improvement of the business model, China is expected to start suborbital travel in 2025, with a fare of about 2 million to 3 million yuan.
Yang Yiqiang also said that China's aerospace commercialization needs two-wheel drive - market demand and technological innovation. The commercialization direction of aerospace is not complicated. For example, commercial rockets are essentially delivery vehicles. The main profit model in the future is to charge by kilograms and develop extended services such as advertising naming and cultural tourism. The commercialization path of satellites is to provide stable, Accurate data, such as satellite navigation, and the combination of remote sensing satellites with environmental monitoring, urban and rural planning, etc. In my opinion, the key to the development of China's commercial aerospace is not rockets or satellites, but applications. The closer it is to ordinary people and end users, the higher the business benefits. We want to make commercial aerospace go deep into the lives of ordinary people.
Yang Yiqiang said that the current investment hotspots are still rockets and satellites. But in fact, there are enough rocket and satellite-related companies, and the leading companies have emerged, and the continuous influx of capital will cause internal friction for these companies, "So I suggest that the capital side can focus more on the upstream. On the supply chain (such as engines, components, etc.) and downstream satellite applications (such as navigation, remote sensing, etc.) . Because, without excellent supply chain products, there will be no good system integration products."