A new study suggests that the PLATO mission, which is scheduled to launch in 2026, could detect tens of thousands of exoplanets, including a minimum of 500 Earth-sized planets.
The study, which was conducted by researchers from the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the Freie Universität Berlin, and the Technical University Berlin, used a tool called the Planet Yield for PLATO Estimator (PYPE) to estimate the number of exoplanets that PLATO is likely to detect.
PYPE combines a statistical approach with occurrence rates from planet formation models and data obtained by the Kepler space telescope. This allowed the researchers to estimate how many exoplanets PLATO will detect during four years based on a fraction of the observation fields selected for the all-sky PLATO stellar input catalog (PIC).
The researchers found that PLATO is likely to detect thousands or tens of thousands of exoplanets, depending on what fields it observes and for how long, the orbital period of the planets, the orientation of the planets, and other factors. Even more encouraging, they found that a statistically significant number of these planets are likely to be similar to Earth.
As the study's lead author, Filip Matuszewski, explained, "Using the most conservative planet population model and mission scenario, we estimate a minimum of 500 Earth-sized planets to be detected in the nominal mission duration of four years."
"That includes every type of star and every distance to the star. If we look at Earth-sized planets with an orbital period range of 250-500 days around G stars (Earth-Sun analogs), we estimate up to 12 detections. This is for the 2+2 year observation with the most optimistic planet model."
The results of this study are very encouraging, and they suggest that the PLATO mission has the potential to be the most successful planet hunter ever. The discovery of even a handful of Earth-sized planets orbiting G-type solar analogs would be a major breakthrough, and it would help narrow the search for worlds that are likely to be habitable—and inhabited.
Journal Information: F. Matuszewski et al, Estimating the number of planets that PLATO can detect, arXiv (2023). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2307.12163